El Nino 2024 Update. El niño weakened substantially over the past month, and we think a transition to neutral conditions is imminent. A cpc el niño advisory remains in place for january 2024.
El niño is beginning to weaken and should dissipate by late spring 2024, potentially transitioning to neutral conditions and possibly to la niña by fall. The pattern shifts back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, bringing predictable shifts in ocean surface temperature and disrupting the wind and rainfall patterns.